OK, enough movie vs. recruiting shtick. I will confess and plead guilty that since the end of the baseball season, I've eagerly awaited Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects list when it was the Athletics' turn (author's note: I was once a correspondent for Baseball America and have the utmost respect for the guys there like John Manuel, Will Lingo, Jim Callis etc. They cover baseball, especially another sports passion of mine, college baseball, as well as anyone in this business).
The A's turn came earlier this week, and I had a couple of thoughts on what the guys at BA came up with:
*I am a little concerned with how fast Baseball America expects No. 1 prospect Addison Russell to shoot up the farm system, and in turn how fast the 18-year-old shortstop and Oakland's first-round pick could be big-league ready. This was Jim Shonerd's description for Russell's future in the organization (you need to be a subscriber to read the scouting report for each prospect:
Russell has the makings of a big-time shortstop who can impact a game with his power, speed and defense. The A's believe he could advance quickly after seeing how well he handled two promotions in his pro debut, though he'll still likely be ticketed for Oakland's new low Class A Beloit affiliate to start the 2013 season. He may only need a couple of years in the minors and could be the franchise's best shortstop since former American League MVP Miguel Tejada.
Without a doubt, in the videos available for Russell -I posted one below, although most of these are just one or a couple at-bats in low Single-A and obviously small sample sizes- the kid looks the part of an impact player at a coveted position, but only that is where I get nervous. There is a reason beyond the fact he's a Yankee and a natural media darling why Derek Jeter is considered one of his generation's best players. Premier shortstops (and catchers) are so hard to come by, and Jeter is a no-doubt, first-ballot Hall of Famer. It was suggested Grant Green -more on him later- was going to be the next Miggy or if not Eric Chavez when he was selected out of USC. Now as we'll dive into later Green won't be on the left side of the infield for the immediate future. Be optimistic about Russell, but tread carefully given how difficult it is to develop shortstops and justify their promise.
*Outfielder Michael Choice would have been my -apologize for the pun- choice for No. 1 prospect instead of ranking second. But in Russell's defense for his inclusion Choice is coming off a broken hand injury at Double-A Midland he endured with about six weeks remaining in the 2012 season. On the surface, the A's outfield of Josh Reddick, Chris Young -Coco Crisp won't be in Oakland for the long haul unfortunately but understandably- and Yoenis Cespedes looks set for a lot of years if the team holds onto them. But if Choice bounces back from his injury and has a big season at Double-A and/or Triple-A Sacramento, he'll either be a threat to unseat one of the incumbents in 2014 spring training or be a valuable asset the team could use in a trade.
*Speaking of trades, General Manager Billy Beane was at his brilliant best in the 2011 offseason swapping frenzy. We know in letting go of popular All-Stars Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Andrew Bailey did Beane land 2012 contributors like Reddick, Tommy Milone, Jarrod Parker, Ryan Cook, Derek Norris etc. But there are more promising offspring from those deals still in the preschool stage of the minors. Pitchers A.J. Cole (Gonzalez trade) Brad Peacock (Gonzalez) and corner infielder Miles Head (Bailey) each found their way into the Top 10 rankings. Frankly, part of that is the A's farm system, while improving even before these deals, had really fallen off bridging the gap between Oakland's four consecutive playoff appearances and five in six years and last season's shocking division title. But Cole, who admittedly struggled at Midland before bouncing back in the demoted California League at Stockton, and Peacock, give the A's more arms waiting in the wings for a chance.
Barring injuries and infractions, Cole and Peacock won't be needed for the big club in 2013 with so much young talent atop the rotation, and the veteran presence of Bartolo Colon and possibly Brandon McCarthy at the back end. Throw in former Vanderbilt ace right-hander Sonny Gray (ranked fifth by Baseball America) and the A's have what a lot of teams lack and that's quality pitching depth both in the big-leagues and the minors. Remember, the 2010 and 2012 World Series champions built a championship-caliber team with an emphasis on pitching. And with three phone calls to Phoenix, Washington D.C. and Boston and some recent drafting success, Beane went that route too. All that's missing now is the championship (or two!).
*Second base looks like the hottest competition for the A's in spring training. What to make of Jemile Weeks? Fluke rookie season or simple sophomore slump? Now that Green, who went from too tall a shortstop to third baseman, to outfielder and now second base candidate, is expected to make a run as the starter at second when the A's break camp in late March, we'll know a lot more about Weeks. Most probably weren't expecting Weeks to struggle for such long periods of time, nor could have anyone anticipated he'd be sent to the minors. And who would have thought by the playoffs the now traded Cliff Pennington would be at second base and Weeks off the postseason roster? Adam Rosales is not the answer long term as an everyday player -and you wonder if Green even if he's not a starter should absolutely take over the Rosales role of utility player. You hope so, given Green was touted as a future cornerstone of the organization when he was drafted in 2009 (not to mention one of 23 players selected in the first round before Mike Trout -luckily, despite what this writer brags- fell into the Angels' lap, and even the Halos sinned when they didn't take Trout with the first of their two No. 1 picks and survived one more player drafted before landing their big fish). You just hope the expected competition between Weeks and Green inspires one to grab the starting job. And Scott Sizemore, whose season-ending injury suffered on the first day of spring workouts and the emergence of Josh Donaldson at third base will also have Sizemore in the second base derby. So expect a spirited battle.
*One more point: What I always love about the Baseball America Top 10 prospects lists is the magazine projects what each team's starting lineup and pitching rotation could look like in the future (in this case it's for 2016). Here's what Shonerd/Baseball America projects for your 2016 Oakland Athletics (location and stadium address TBA):
| Catcher | Derek Norris |
| First Base | Miles Head |
| Second Base | Jemile Weeks |
| Third Base | Daniel Robertson |
| Shortstop | Addison Russell |
| Left Field | Michael Choice |
| Center Field | Chris Young |
| Right Field | Josh Reddick |
| Designated Hitter | Yoenis Cespedes |
| No. 1 Starter | Jarrod Parker |
| No. 2 Starter | Brett Anderson |
| No. 3 Starter | A.J. Cole |
| No. 4 Starter | Brad Peacock |
| No. 5 Starter | Sonny Gray |
| Closer | Ryan Cook |
I don't have any major arguments for or against, though Norris right away has a lot to prove -especially with his arm when runners are stealing bases- to ensure he'll still be around for that long. In terms of the corner infielders, Baseball America understandably plugged two of its Top 10 Oakland prospects, Head and No. 10 Daniel Robertson. I really liked the pick of B.A. Vollmuth, a third baseman who the A's drafted in the third round in 2011 out of Southern Miss (I remember seeing him when I covered the 2009 College World Series when his Golden Eagles' team reached Omaha his freshman year). But admittedly his early pro career has been unspectacular. And usually Baseball America doesn't anticipate what players could be traded, which would be impossible to measure given Beane's Turkish Grand Bazaar way of seeking the best deals available (during a short cruise ship port of call in Kusadasi, Turkey I couldn't walk 10 feet on the waterfront without someone trying to sell me something!). But note Milone is not listed as a member of the rotation and Cole, Peacock and Gray behind Jarrod Parker and Brett Anderson. Not necessarily disagreeing with that projection, just something to chew on as we wrap this up.
And don't forget.... it's 74 days until Oakland pitchers and catchers report to spring training in Phoenix. And only 66 days to 2013 National Signing Day for you recruiting and possible Garry Marshall movie script wackos.
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