Friday, January 18, 2013

Sharks' schedule breakdown

As promised, here's are some thoughts on the Sharks' adjusted schedule as the very late 2013 (2012's ship has already broken the ice) NHL season begins Sunday afternoon in Calgary:

*The fact that teams will have had just about a week's worth of "training camp" could help a roster like the Sharks' that is mostly retained from what it was in 2011-12. Of course, the defending Stanley Cup-champion Kings also didn't undergo many if any drastic changes either; ditto former playoff nemeses like Chicago, St. Louis and Vancouver (unless the Canucks do deal Roberto Luongo), so it may not matter come playoff time. But the Sharks should have a leg up on Western Conference rivals and postseason hopefuls that are scrambling to cope with and gain chemistry from significant changes such as Detroit post-Nick Lidstrom; Minnesota dealing with the transition to new franchise faces Ryan Suter and Zach Parise; Dallas rolling the dice with Jaromir Jagr; Phoenix adjusting to an already questionable offense without ageless Ray Whitney; Nashville hoping Shea Weber will still be an elite (and content) blueliner sans Suter. You can argue if the Sharks should have made more wholesale offseason moves, but continuity should not be a factor with a team that isn't much different from last season.

*The travel isn't going to be a Fodor's nightmare. We'd all prefer this lockout nonsense had never interrupted the season, and it's not a true hockey season when Sharks' fans won't get to watch their team play the Sidney Crosby's, the Steven Stamkos's, the Alex Ovechkin-Kirilenko's, the Rick DiPietro's? , and the other stars of the Eastern Conference at least once in person or on the tube. But being so far west in the West, the Sharks seem to have it as tough as anyone in terms of travel to the Eastern and Central Time Zones. The 48-game season means the Sharks have just one trip to Detroit; one visit apiece to Nashville and Minnesota. Plus, the bulk of the Sharks' long flights will be on one six-game swing in February. (CSN California's Kevin Kurz did remind the Sharks could fly back to California for a break with at one point a four-day gap between games. And it's silly to think the idea that flying first class in charters with plenty of legroom and amenities is that much of a negative factor for professional sports teams.).

*Conversely, that six-game "tennis trip" -the SAP Open will no longer be an H.P. Pavilion stop after this run- could be critical in deciding where this team stacks up in the Western Conference playoff jockeying. With a little less than half of a normal 82-game docket, the Sharks can't afford to have brutal trips like last season's epic failure with just five of 18 points collected in nine February roadies.  The '11-'12 Sharks barely survived that to sneak into the postseason as the No. 7 seed. But there will be less margin for error, and having to play the Blackhawks twice, not to mention Nashville, St. Louis and Dallas during the six-pack of games in 13 days will be a defining stretch.

*We'll see how Coach Todd McLellan handles his goalies. The Sharks' 48 games will take place in just 97 days, so Antti Niemi's endurance and mental toughness would be tested if McLellan decided to give his No. 1 'tender the bulk of the starts. The scouting report on Niemi suggests he's better when he stays busy, but you wonder if that's an urban legend or the gospel with this Shark Finn. Candidly, and kudos to Niemi for being a driving force in the Chicago Blackhawks' 2009-10 Stanley Cup run, he's been a little inconsistent in San Jose. The organization's one true deep position both at the NHL level and the minor-league system is in goal. Goalies Alex Stalock, Harri Sateri and Tyson Sexsmith are some of the prospect-light Sharks' best players-in-waiting. And we haven't mentioned Thomas Greiss yet. At some point, Greiss deserves a chance to compete for a No. 1 goalie job somewhere, considering some of the shaky play the league has witnessed in some markets. Clearly, the Sharks need to go with Niemi early and often. He's certainly not the biggest weakness in San Jose and has been as solid in some stretches as vulnerable in others. But Greiss has shown signs of being at worst and an effective option as a spot starter. And with nine back-to-backs as part of the crunched schedule, you would think McLellan will have to give some extended playing time to Greiss as the games mount.

*You don't how Anaheim will bounce back after a disappointing season; how much better Dallas can be with aging additions Whitney and Jagr, and how much chemistry they'll have with the at least for the now unsigned budding star Jamie Benn; how the Coyotes will score enough goals to take some pressure off Mike Smith to pitch shutouts in the net; and even how the Kings will handle the expectations and defense of their Stanley Cup. So how strong the rest of the Pacific Division will be could decide how high the Sharks will be in the Western Conference's pecking order. San Jose faces the Kings, Coyotes, Ducks and Stars 18 times. The Pacific was pretty competitive last season if you factor in two from that quintet  met in the conference finals. It remains to be seen if the division is any better or much worse as the league faces off in games on Saturday.

*Starting fast should be a priority for a San Jose team that on paper just doesn't look as formidable as it did a mere two seasons ago when it was coming off consecutive runs to the Western Conference finals. The Sharks had to rally just to reach the playoffs, and were clearly a skate or four slower than St. Louis in a rather lopsided five-game series win for the Blues. Opening with a somewhat tame trip to Alberta to face the Flames and Oilers, then six consecutive at the Shark Tank provides an opportunity to gain some momentum for the grind of squeezing in a game at an average of about one every two games. And the Sharks aren't exactly bellying up to the bar at the Ponce de Leon tavern. Fountains of youth have long passed by 30-somethings Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle, Patrick Marleau, Brad Stuart, Douglas Murray, Martin Havlat and Ryane Clowe. Hey, these guys aren't washed up just yet; and Logan Couture, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Brent Burns, Joe Pavelski and Tommy Wingels are young and talented enough to form a strong nucleus in a couple seasons.

But the worry as this season finally reveals itself at the Saddledome in Calgary on Sunday is this: save for tough guy Adam Burish and Sharks' fans hope penalty kill savior Larry Robinson behind the bench, this is essentially the same group that looked like it was a notch below the Western' Conference's elite teams last season when it counted. We'll know pretty quickly how much advanced or regressed San Jose can be.



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